NFL WEEK SEVENTEEN
AFTER WEEK SIXTEEN
Week Sixteen Picks: 11 – 4 – 1 2019 Overall Tally: 128 – 106 – 6 .547
Weekly Totals Picks: 0 – 6 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 49 – 49 – 1 .500
Weekly Specials 3– 1 Cumulative Specials: 31 – 32 – 1 .492
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 10 LOCK OF THE WEEK 10 – 6
UPSET SPECIAL 8– 7 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 9
My serious advice to the reader would be don’t bet on any game that has a counterintuitive line—like Pittsburgh favored by 2 at Baltimore…there’s too much guess work involving coach’s decisions, playoff scenarios and injuries that make the difficult task of beating the Wise Guys, that much harder…
I never bet Week 17 except for a few Parlay combinations that return at least 20 to 1 on a 10.00 wager.
TOTAL DISASTER
In our tenth year prognosticating the Over/Under results of our Specials and the NFL Prime Time slate we have never been goose-egged on our Weekly Totals Picks.
Never is never a long enough time, is it?
NOT TO BRAG
And I mean that. Been trying to outwit Vegas long enough to know 4-12 weeks often follow 12-4 weeks. Better not to get too up or too down.
Want to let you know, though, my .547 pct. for my weekly picks are way better than the NFL scribes at CBSsports.com and, my man, Vinnie Iyer, at the SportingNews.com—and my Specials Tally are even with Vinnie.
Here’s our very tentative Specials selections for Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season…
GAME OF THE WEEK
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -5 45 [O]
When he first remerged on the NFL landscape, I didn’t think Pete Carroll would do much as head coach, because this isn't college—you can’t just cheat the system, then walk away scot-free.
This is the NFL where you can get caught cheating three times and Roger Goodell will still slather your balls in Lavender bath beads—ask Bill Belichick.
Truth is Pete Carroll is a hell of a football coach. His teams lead the league in prime time win pct.. Carroll’s ‘Hawks are in the NFL’s top tier at rebounding with an ATS win after an ATS loss.
More impressive is how his teams handle adversity, injuries, and the inevitable modern day distractions that hang like dark clouds over American athletes.
Check these trends out:
· San Francisco is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games against Seattle.
· San Francisco is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games against Seattle.
· San Francisco is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
· San Francisco is 0-8 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle.
· The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.
· The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
· San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.
The above stats really don ‘t sway my pick at all. Russell Wilson does—especially when directly compared with Jimmy Garapolo.
Also, a lot of people are leaning on the Seahawks injuries at RB—Beast Mode is back—the O and D-Lines and at linebacker. But San Fran is hurting at RB too—and that defense is either tired or losing its mojo.
For the season, the Niners are giving up a league second-best 277 YPG. In their last three –383 YPG. The Goldminers were, again, second best all year giving up 4.6 YPP. Their last three—5.8 YPP.
Niners will squeak out a win, but fail to Cover.
49ers 24 Seahawks 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINATTI BENGALS +2.5 43 [O]
Okay, I admit it, I almost took the Bengals as the Upset Special, but I seriously doubt Zack Taylor has a care in the world—especially if he watched Joe Burrow destroy Oklahoma last night.
Cincy has, indeed, had an awful year—very common with first year head coaches installing new offenses.
Then why am I taking Cincinnati as a Lock?
Just look at these two teams, the way their players act on the field and off. Have they made progress throughout the year and during adversity? Have they bought into the new system?
Are they disciplined, even with the coaching change?
Cincy: YES to all…
Cleveland: Uh, no, to all…
That’s right, we’re calling the Home Dog, Bengals to play lights out, knowing they will get a legitimate franchise quarterback in April of 2020
We’re going against consensus even more by calling the Over.
So, there!
Bengals 26 Browns 21
UPSET SPECIAL
ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -1 50.5 [O]
Except for our Game of the Week, and a full bet on the Under in the Steeler/Raven contest, I’m sure you noticed we stayed away from any game with playoff implications.
We’re taking the Falcons to pull off the mild Upset in Tampa because they won five of their last seven and are playing hard for their coach, Dan Quinn, in hopes of saving his job.
Owner Arthur Blank has a question: Where were you boys in the first half of the season?
Anyway, the Bucs scare nobody in the NFL; I don’t care how many yards Jameius Winston throws for.
He’s had SIX pick-sixes in 2019, he’s careless with the ball, makes repeated, awful decisions, and his sloppy football has to be taking a psychological toll on the Bucs defense.
I’m betting Bruce Arians is looking to trade up in the draft and send Winston to some coach with a big enough ego to think he can turn Winston into Joe Montana.
Here are three fairly significant trends that confirm our decision the take the Birds of Prey, Over the Number.
· Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
· The OVER is 11-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 13 games.
· The OVER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 games vs Atlanta.
Falcons 27 Buccaneers 24
O/U OF THE WEEK
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -2 36 [U]
Well, Devlin, "Duck" Hodges of the 21st Century proved to be no better at quarterbacking than your favorite whacky cartoon duck, with the infamous lisp, was at outsmarting the pesky and seriously weaponized Marvin Martian.
Hell of a duck tale though, and my undying faith in all things Black & Gold precludes me from dismissing the possibility Duck Hodges’ adventures might not end so miserably.
Mike Tomlin’s defense pretty much corralled the Magpies Lamar Jackson during their Week Three OT loss in Pittsburgh. A couple of ill-timed and questionably called penalties kept Pittsburgh out of the playoff hunt, unless the now unabashedly desperate Steelers can defeat the Crows second stringers in Baltimore this Sunday—while the Titans stumble in Houston.
Ravens coach, John Harbaugh says the electrifying Jackson and his starting cohorts will watch from the sideline as they get a head start on the fortnight of rest the AFC’s top team earns for compiling the best conference record.
I wouldn’t believe Harbaugh if he said Baltimore was in Maryland.
I’m taking the Ravens and the 2 points because there is great value in choosing the Ravens. If their starters were going to play, the spread would be north of 13 points.
Thing is, Harbaugh can’t bench everyone. He would risk setting his Birds up for a poor outing when they finally do take the field in mid-January.
This puppy begs us to put a full bet on the Under.
There is only one path to a Steelers win, given Pittsburgh has proven their offense is good for only one stinking touchdown per game. I figure Minkah Fitzpatrick or Devin Bush will score defensively for the Black & Gold…
C’mon, humor me…
Baltimore will run back a punt for a score and still lose. Justin Hunter will add three field goals and we end up with a one-point Pittsburgh victory.
It’s like believing Duck Dodger of the 24th and a Half Century really will save earth from Marvin the Martian.
Steelers 17 Ravens 16
Here are the rest of my picks:
NFL Lines For Week 17 - 12/29, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
12/29 1:00 ET Tennessee -3.5 At Houston 45.5
12/29 1:00 ET Cleveland -2.5 [O] At Cincinnati 43
12/29 1:00 ET At Minnesota -3 Chicago 36
12/29 1:00 ET Indianapolis LW -4 [U] At Jacksonville 42.5
12/29 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay US -1 [O] Atlanta 50.5
12/29 1:00 ET At Dallas -10.5 Washington 46
12/29 1:00 ET New Orleans -13 At Carolina 45
12/29 1:00 ET Philadelphia -4 At NY Giants 44.5
12/29 1:00 ET Pittsburgh O/U -2 At Baltimore 37
12/29 1:00 ET At Buffalo PK NY Jets 36
12/29 1:00 ET At New England -16 Miami 44.5
12/29 1:00 ET Green Bay -13 At Detroit 43.5
12/29 1:00 ET At Kansas City -9 LA Chargers 45.5
12/29 4:25 ET At LA Rams -6 Arizona 46
12/29 8:20 ET San Francisco GW -3 [O] At Seattle 46.5
12/29 4:25 ET At Denver -3 Oakland 40.5
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