NFL 2022 – TALLY SHEET
WILDCARD WEEKEND = 2 – 2
WEEKLY OVERALL = 139 – 132 - 7
0/U = 2 – 2 O/U CUMULATIVE 65 – 63 – 1 = .508
SPECIALS 1 – 3 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 43 – 35 – 1 = .551
GAME OF THE WEEK 11 – 8* LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 12 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 15 – 5 O/U OF THE WEEK 10 - 10
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 108 – 98 – 2 .524
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND
LOCK OF THE WEEK & OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
S.F. 49ers (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 48 US [U]
This is the week where the best four teams in the NFL vie for a Super Bowl berth—and there is no doubt these four teams have earned that status.
In these conference championship contests the usual statistical analyses can be skewed to any wager. A quick glance at the matchup stats in the early game at Philly proves the point; anyway you look at it two top five offenses are facing two top five defenses.
In fact, the teams mirror statistics all the way down the board.
Philly’s statistical weakness in run defense stands out, but it’s a remarkably different story since Week 11, according to Adam Burke at vsin.com:
While it is true that you can run on the Eagles, who ranked 23rd in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate against, they are 12th in Rush EPA and ninth in Rush Success Rate against since adding defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh in Week 11. They’ve improved by leaps and bounds with those two additions.
San Fran better hope they can run; they are up against an historically excellent pass rush, (70 sacks), that features four players with double digit sacks. Eagles DC, Jonathan Gannon boasts the best record of any of his predecessors, 23-11-0—the exact record of 49ers DC, Demeco Ryans.
Most people will give the head coach advantage to Kyle Shanahan—but I can’t forgive or forget his idiotic play calling that let the Cheaters overcome a 28-3 Super Bowl deficit.
There’s just no way a rookie QB, Brock Purdy is going to outplay a healthy Jalen Hurts, and Purdy hasn’t faced any defense nearly as good as the Eagles.
I’m taking the Bald Birds to win decisively—Under the Number.
Eagles 27
Niners 19
GAME OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals (+2) @ Kansas City Chiefs 48.5 GW [O]
In the late game—if Andy Reid is playing the injury report straight—we should look forward to a high scoring game due to two very average defenses.
I just have a hard time believing with his plant foot recently injured, even a determined, supremely talented Patrick Mahomes can slough off a high ankle sprain, the way Reid is letting on.
The HC edge has to go to Coach Reid only because Zach Taylor is still a pup and not the president, but Lou Anarumo, Cincy’s DC, has become the best at in-game adjusting during his short tenure.
His defense is 8th in takeaways and 5th in TO margin per game.
If Chris Jones and the KC pass rush can take the game over and relentlessly pressure Burrow, the Arrowheads can advance to the Super Bowl.
If Joe Burrow plays like Goat Boy, and look-alike, Jim Bruer, the Chiefs win in a blowout…
Too many if for The Gairzo…We think Burrow will play like the best quarterback in football—exactly who he is—Cincy will exploit a shabby Chiefs run defense and make their second consecutive trip to the Promised Land.
You can take that to the B-a-a-nk…
We’re going with the Bengals in a nail-biter—Over the Number.
Bengals 27
Chiefs 24
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