NFL 2022 WEEK FOURTEEN - AGAINST THE SPREAD

NFL 2022 WEEK THIRTEEN – TALLY SHEET

WEEK THIRTEEN = 9 – 6 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 99 – 91 – 5

WEEK THIRTEEN 0/U = 4 – 4 O/U CUMULATIVE 46 – 43 – 1 .519

SPECIALS 1 – 3 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 30 – 21 – 1 .617

GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 7 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 5

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 71 – 57 – 1 .559

WEEK FOURTEEN – ATS

GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 7

Miami Dolphins (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers 52.5 GW [O]

In his typical cerebral approach to the game Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel kept his team on the Left Coast after last Sunday’s loss to the 49ers in Santa Clara. To me, that’s a smart move, especially in a 17 game marathon season versus an opponent waiting in L.A. that should be desperate to make a run to the playoffs and possibly save Brandon Staley’s head coaching job.

Per usual, we see this as a high-stakes game against talented teams and our first inclination was to go with the home team Bolts—but as we did our research, we were shocked how strong an advantage the Dolphins seem to have.

Here are some general trends to whet your appetite:

· Miami is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in games when it has scored 17 points or less …

· …and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when scoring more than 17 points.

· Miami is 3-6 ATS over its last 9 games.

· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games.

· Miami is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games

· The OVER is 7-2 in Los Angeles’ last 9 home games.

· LAC are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games as an underdog.

For some reason, the Dolphins enjoy an inexplicable dominance against the Bolts—reflected in these salient trends:

· Dolphins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs., the Bolts

· Dolphins are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against LAC....

The Fish play superior offense and although Justin Herbert may be able to match Tua Tagovailoa score for score, Herbert’s defense couldn’t stop a two year-old from pulling on a puppy’s ear.

The rumor in Los Angeles is Brandon Staley’s job is in jeopardy. His penchant for making just enough mistakes to lose close games mirrors that of his predecessors, Anthony Lynn and Dennis Allen—neither of whom had Justin Herbert or Joey Bosa.

Besides, Staley was considered a defensive Gandhi when he DCed for the Rams. Now? Gandhi wouldn’t have a clue. The 2022 Bolts gave up 37 points to Seattle and 38 to Jacksonville.

McDaniel has negated cross-country travel as a factor in this one—but that is not the only reason he’s the better coach. He’s done what Staley might not get a real chance to do—why hire a 40 year-old head coach if you aren’t going to give him five years to fulfill his vision?—change the culture.

We think Miami will Cover…Play the Over.

Dolphins 33

Chargers 27

LOCK OF THE WEEK 5-7-1

Carolina Panthers (3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 43.5 LW [U]

You don’t have to look close to see the Seahawks are the much better team here

· Geno Smith leads the league in Completion percentage.

· Smith is second in QB Rating…

· No Carolina QB cracks the Top 35…in either category…

Vegas has a lot more info than I do, but in my book this spread should be at least six points.

And…we are just as confident on the Total—bet the Under.

Seahawks 26

Carolina 13

UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 2

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. New York Giants 45.5 US [O]

We really weren’t enamored with any of the possible Upset Specials on the Week Fourteen slate.

· I don’t trust the Jets, Chargers, Browns, or Detroit—all facing teams currently ascending as the playoffs approach…

· Pittsburgh hasn't earned Favorite status against Baltimore—with or without Lamar Jackson quarterbacking the Magpies….

· The Shitkickers getting a 17-point Junior Cheeseburger against Dallas was tempting, but Houston is awful, and the Cowboys are going to the Super Bowl.

The Giants are a mirage—razor thin triumphs versus Tennessee in Week One, and an injury riddled Ravens squad in Week Six, represent their only two wins against good teams. Big Blue’s other five victories, over pathetic NFL squads, were all close, one score affairs.

The Bald Birds who have set the standard in the NFL this year, have nothing to brag about when it comes to Strength of Schedule—except they’ve whipped the teams they were supposed to, and their only loss came against another division rival, Washington.

Oh yeah, they convincingly throttled three division leaders.

This is a heated, biannual divisional battle that, since 2016 has been decided by six points or fewer, except on four occasions, three of which Philly won in a rout. We think New York has enough to stay in this baby the whole way and Cover, but will lose to the better team.

We’re calling the Over.

Eagles 26

Giants 23

0VER/UNDER OF THE WEEK 8 – 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers 37.5 O/U

Week Fourteen offers less hope for this Special than the Upset.

Neither of these teams has a great offense, and both are legit top eight defenses—the Niners are the league’s best scoring and yardage “D”.

Tom Brady will throw at least 55 passes—the Bucs have no running game—and will get picked often enough to give San Fran a couple of short fields and/or a defensive touchdown. But, Brady has the best INT % and takes the fewest sacks; with his receiving corps, the Mateys could score 21+ points. Ask the Saints.

The Gold Miners should score at least three TDs on an over-valued and injury riddled Bucs defense.

I think this Total is way off. The Over is a Premium Play.

Niners 26

Buccaneers 20

As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:

WEEK FOURTEEN SPREADS AND TOTALS

NFL WEEK FOURTEEN ATS

Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams 44.5 [U]

New York Jets (+10) vs. Buffalo Bills 44.5

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals 47

Houston Texans (+17) vs. Dallas Cowboys 45

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions 53

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. New York Giants 45.5 US [O]

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 37.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans 41.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Denver Broncos 42.5

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 43.5 LW [U]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers 37.5 O/U

Miami Dolphins (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 52.5 GW [O]

New England Patriots (-2) vs. Arizona Cardinals 44 [U]