2024 SUPER WILDCARD = 3 - 3 2024 OVERALL. = 153 - 119 - 5 .563
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 79 - 52 .603
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 59 - 33 - 3 .641
GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 10 LOCK OF THE WEEK 13 – 5 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 10– 8 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 13 - 6
STEELERS 14 - 4 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 138 - 85 - 3 .619
The best NFL weekend is upon us, the best because seldom do we find a team that does not belong in the Divisional round...
...The best because any handicapper can, usually, make a solid case for either team in evry matchup.
Moving forward from this weekend, I note the early odds on every game, and the Totals, then make my “first instinct” picks... Often my original picks differ from the finals due to weather, matchups, coaching, lopsided stats, recent play, Shark tendencies in betting, etc.
This year, excepting Totals in both early games, my picks never wavered--even after my usual research.
Here are my picks for each game with Totals...
Any italicized text reflects trends or stats from teamrankings.com, Oddsharks.com, vsin.com...
NFL PLAYOFF ODDS: DIVISIONAL POINT SPREADS
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8) 42 [U]
I’ve never even thought about changing this pick on, even though matchup stats reveal these two squads to be mirror statistical images. Those stats are deceiving.
Patrick Mahomes is a top three NFL quarterback in any era...
C.J. Stroud has suffered the sophmore slump induced by DCs all over the league having much more film to look at. (I relish saying I told you so. You give NFL DCs a year of film and they will exploit weaknesses you didn't know you have, and end up humblng most “phenoms.”)
Houston’s main offensive weapon, Joe Mixon, has ankle issues and was limited in practice this week and that’s going to put more pressure on Stroud--who ranked 25th in passer rating in 2024 plummeting from 4th as last years ROY.
Not good for the Shitkickers...
From vsin.com:
The worst unit on the field will be the Texans offensive line, which PFF.com recently ranked as the 28th best in the league. Nobody can expose a bad offensive line like Chiefs DT and Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Meanwhile, the Arrowheads might be the healthiest team in playoff history. Not one ankle, knee, hammy, or hip problem with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, or DeAndre Hopkins.
Oh oh...
Mike Somich at vsin.com believes the news on defense might be even worse for the visitors:
...the Chiefs get a huge upgrade in the secondary with the return of cornerback Jaylen Watson. With him in the lineup in Weeks 1-7, this was a top-eight defense against the pass. Without him, it was a bottom-eight pass defense.
Oh oh...
VSIN's Steve Makinen offers this nugget:
Road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-27 SU and 11-24 ATS (31.4%) since 2009. Plus, much of what happened last week for head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team came as a result of the Chargers’ mistakes
To me, you add Andy Reid, one of history’s elite coaches/play callers with a SU post-bye record that tops the NFL since his move to KC--same ATS, minimum 16 games--he’s the best, and it’s not even close in the coach/QB comparison--no disrespect to Demeco Ryans.
Houston’s only hope is the Chief’s 24 day lay-off might allow the Texans to get out to a big lead. After that, it’ll be all Chiefs.
More trends:
Kansas City is 11-0 in its last 11 games as a favorite
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games against Kansas City
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against Kansas City
Kansas City is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games
Kansas City 11-0 SU in their last 11 games at home
We’re looking at the Chiefs winning big at home, Under the Number.
Chiefs 29
Texans 13
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5). 55.5 [U]
It is not a stretch to view Washington’s Jayden Daniel as this year’s C.J. Stroud. The kid is phenomenal talent--runs like a gazelle, a howitzer throwing arm--and, so far has been able to avoid turnovers. That should be a revelation for Commanders fans...but...
Who else but Steve Makinen at VSIN would dig deep enough for this gem?...
Road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 3-19 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) since 2004.
YowZa!!! Talk about counter intuitive...
Furthermore, since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 20 games, going 20-124 SU and 56-84-4 ATS (40%), and in their last 18 playoff games, rookie quarterbacks are just 6-12 SU and ATS (33.3%). Take away Joe Flacco’s 2009 run and the record drops to 4-11 SU and ATS.
Often, trends are misunderstood or overused by a lot of bettors because trends can’t tell you how a particular, coach, player, or team will perform under post-season pressure...
But some Sharks like Makinen delve deep enough where you can’t help but notice.
Doesn’t matter, I had the Jungle Kings as the firm favorite even with a Spread that has ballooned to 10.5 In some books. This Pride of Lions are hungry. They destroyed the Norsemen last week in what was supposed to be a nail biter shootout. I’ve said all year this Detroit team reminds us of the 1972-’74 Steelers--after decades of embarrassing futility,
Destiny is on their side.
So are these trends:
Detroit is 17-4 SU and ATS when coming off a double-digit win since 2018
Detroit is 14-7 SU and 18-4 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019.
Detroit is on 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record. favorites of more than seven points are on an 18-0 straight-up run in the playoffs.
The Commandos don’t have the talent, the coaching or the scheme to alter the sweep of Destiny.
The Lions feast big time; we’re going against the public and call the Under...
Lions 33
Commanders 20
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) 44 [U]
Statistically the Eagles defense is the definition of elite.
Numero Uno in...
PPG surrendered = 17.4
YPG allowed = 279.7
YPP given up = 4.8
OPP. TDs per game = 1.9
Opp. PY per game =175.3
Opp. YPPass = 6.0...
9th in Opp. 3rd Down Conversion %...and...
Oppp.RY per game = 104.3...
Then there’s Saquon Barkley, who if he had played full bore the last two games, should have broken Eric Dickerson’s All-Time rushing record for a season.
Beating Philly won’t be easy for the Ravens and Derek Henrys of the NFL world. The Big Horns don’t have the weapons to overcome Philly’s excellence rushing the ball, or defending the run, or defending the pass.
What the Rams do have is the game’s most dynamic coach who can get an underrated group of men to overachieve when it counts. Under normal circumstances, they have a shot to pull off the upset.
NORMAL IS DEAD
On a human level, the firestorms in L.A. are not events people, even pro athletes, can put completely out of mind. Many of their friends, even some NFL players, have stood outside once beautiful homes that had become ash heaps--too many, smoldering crematoriums for unrecovered victims.
Yes, most people can feel fortunate; nobody died, and they can rebuild, but at what cost?
Who will insure them?
Until gutless MAGA politicians and their Cultists stop wielding cruelty as a political weapon, even a once great nation like pre-Trump America can never confront the existential reality that is the Climate Crisis.
Not even lucky ones like me--a hundred miles southeast of the firestorms---can relax, not when I see ash falling into my swimming pool.
It was so sad, what it represented...
...Every flake like the soul of a displaced victim or a deceased Angelino whose fate could have been altered, if we behaved like a species who understood the responsibility we share for ourselves and our planet.
You don’t put tragedy like that out of your mind even for playoff football.
I’ll be rooting for L.A., but I don’t think it’ll be much of a game.
Forgive the digression..
Eagles 23
Rams 16
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1) 51.5. GW [O]
Okay, so now I’m depressed...
In football terms, this is the game of the year. Historical for the combined excellence of the teams involved--in most every aspect.
Josh Allen is a faster version of Big Ben Roethlisberger...
...But Lamar Jackson is one of the greatest threats ever to grace an NFL field--and should win his third MVP in seven years...
The undersized Bills defense even with a returning healthy linebacking corps will struggle all day, even if WR, Zay Flowers doesn’t play for Baltimore.
Until Josh Allen kicks Lamar off the mountain, the smart bet is on the Magpies to Cover, Under the Total.
Ravens 33
Bills 31
NFL PLAYOFF ODDS: DIVISIONAL POINT SPREADS
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8) 42 [U]
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5). 55.5 [U]
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) 44 [U]
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1) 51.5. GW [O]
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