2024 REGULAR SEASON= 9 - 7 2024 OVERALL. = 150 - 116 -6 .564
WEEKLY O/U = 2 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 77 - 51 .602
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 56 - 32 - 3 .636
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 1O LOCK OF THE WEEK 12 – 5 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 10– 7 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 12 - 6
STEELERS 13 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 133 - 75 - 3 .639
2024 - THE GAIRZO AGAINST THE SPREAD
Your humble prognosticator compares to some sites where so called experts call every game.
Only Dave Richard of the CBS pundits, hitting at 145-121-6 is remotely close to my percentages--and is only one of three CBSers to crack .500 calling the full 272 game slate.
In defense of those gutsy enough to call that full schedule, the odds are way against us. The Sharps--I call them Sharks--who actually set the lines and Totals, get paid big money and have algorithims out the ass, and a data base the CIA would envy.
At least, like me, the CBS guys put their tallies out there and take their licks--and although I’ve usually hovered around .500 on the Full Monte there were years when I was just as inept as anyone else--even worse.
Sloan Piva at the sporting news.com stopped publishing his record sometime in October. He wasn’t doing well.
Vinnie Iyer--I love the guys writing--at the same site is 135-132 on the year.
My go to site for ATS analysis is VSIN.com and the best analyst in the betting business is
Steve Makinen. From his WC column:
...my regular season record finished at 81-78-2 ATS (50.9%), well below the standard I set in each of the last two years, but at least I was able to bring it back over .500 after Weeks 8 and 9 nearly crushed the campaign.
Remember--that’s Makinen's Best Bets record...
Irony is, Makinen and I often don’t agree and synch up on only one WC weekend call; one of us is going to be very happy come Tuesday morning.
Let’s get into the games...
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4). 44.5. [O] GW
My methodology incorporates the straightforward analysis implemented by the late Gil Brandt the Cowboys GM when Dallas was an organization to be reckoned with.
Basically, it’s a statistical comparison based on the most crucial statistics in NFL games--Turnover percentagage/differentials, YPP differentials, rushing stats, etc.--giving more weight to defensive excellence. I also love Brandt’s focus on coaching, organization and experience.
THE GAME
The line here is maybe a point or two low. I’m thinking the Eagles will dominate--their defense is the leagues best:
The only team to give up fewer than 300 YPG...
Philly held 10 of its past 13 opponents to 20 points or fewer.
The Eagles finished second in scoring D (17.8 PPG)...
...Surrendering just16 PPG at the link.
First in total yards allowed (278.4) and passing yards surrendered (174.2)
Allowed just an NFL-best 259.9 yards per home game this season over 159 PYPG...
...Barely surrendering over 100 RYPG...
Couple that defensive prowess with Saquon Barkley and the Eagles bring too much dominance to the dance; assuring the Pack--worthy dancers themselves--leave the affair with very sore, if not broken toes.
The wild card in this matchup? Could be the Bald Birds giving up too many sacks--31st in the league--but that stat doesn’t take into account the RPO heavy plays Jalen Hurts runs per game, many of which result in TFLs that go down as sacks.
I’m not dissing Green Bay; their coaching organization and discipline are excellent, and they compete in the NFL’s toughest division--but they only secured victory in one of six divisional matchups.
We’re going with the Over...
Eagles 30
Packers 20
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) 47.5. [U] LW
Bulk of the money is pouring in on Buffalo, at home with Josh Allen ready to make a statement to the pro football world. 7.5 Was the early line I jumped on and has since swelled a point or more in some books.
Denver is a feel good story led by a HOF coach who took some heat for taking Bo Nix in the April draft. Payton was right. Nix seems to be a quality leader and a fast learning QB--but who have the Wild Horses faced in 2024?
There are flaws in the Denver story. They have exactly one win against a playoff team--a decisive Week 3 win in Tampa. Their other wins were against awful teams in the league’s two South Divisions, the Browns, and Vegas twice. The elite teams in the league, except for division rival Chiefs, and crushed Denver. (We can’t count the Week 18 shut out against KC; they played 2nd and 3rd stringers.) The Crows, Bolts and Bengals dominated the Broncs on Both sides of the ball...
Buffalo will do the same, needing to set the tone for the rest of the playoof field.
We’re calling the Under.
Bills 30
Broncos 10
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK & UPSET SPECIAL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) 46.5 [U] O/U
We don’t see any other Upset Special this week, and we genuinely believe this line is so skewed by recency bias we are compelled to make the very rare “Two Special Whammy” call.
Several times this season we have touted Mike Tomlin’s unprecedented supremacy as a SU Underdog in every possible circumstance--the icing on that cake is the Steelers are third under Tomlin SU on the road.
ATS Pittsburgh retains the top spot as an Underdog, slipping to seventh as Road Mutts.
And Vegas is going to give that team, playing against its fiercest rival in the most intense rivalry in team sports 10 points?!
Of course the Bookies base it on the Steelers wretched four game losing streak to end the season--three of them against elite opponents who authored double digit beatdowns.
What they forget were key injuries to their best defensive player, TJ Watt. In Baltimore--a 17 points Magpies shellacking--three secondary starters were out. Like the soon to be three time MVP and his HOF coach should, Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh exploited those weak links--as did the other three teams during the last month of the season.
Russell Wilson didn’t help by throwing two stupid Red Zone interceptions. Stupid because a future HOFer doesn’t make those mistakes with playoff seeding at stake, even with a very suspect offense behind him.
No excuses. Pittsburgh lost three games to elite teams and a quality Cincy team. Mike Tomlin and his “collective” earned every bit of derision impatient Steelers fans reigned over them.
When the line opened at 8.5, I penciled in Baltimore as my pick. When the public and the Sharps pumped it up to 9, I held my ground.
Baltimore by 10--TEN!!!
Ain't gonna happen...
For balance sake, my boy Makinen, at VSIN has the opposite view and his analytics are scary. ***I provide most of his work here as only members can access his column***
The Ravens come off a huge blowout win over Cleveland that clinched the AFC North title. It should be noted that QB Lamar Jackson is 30-9 SU and 25-13 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018.
My biggest concern for Pittsburgh is the ability to score enough to stay in this game. They have the worst offensive scoring stats of any team in the playoffs, and historically, road teams scoring less than 22.5 PPG have struggled terribly in the NFL playoffs, going 8-26 SU and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2009. Their conservative, protect-the-ball strategy can also be a detriment at this time of year, as road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 2-17 SU & 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 2004.
We know from my wild card trends article that the magic point total for road teams is 20 points. Teams coming up shy of that in the wild card round have lost 10 straight games outright and are 6-45 SU and 7-44 ATS (13.7%) since 2002. After scoring just 14.3 PPG during this current four-game skid, the chances of Tomlin’s team hitting 20 are not great.
From a line perspective, home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or higher) in the wild card round are 17-1 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) since 2005. If you consider lines of 9.5 points or more, wild card-favored hosts this large have now won 15 straight games outright while going 14-1 ATS (93.3%)! The Ravens know they are running out of chances. I don’t see them wasting this season’s postseason hopes against their fiercest but struggling rival.
Zay Flowers, last I heard, has been ruled out--that mean LJ’s tight-ends become his main targets. Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick has to be looking at having a great game.
Ravens win. Pittsburgh Covers. Bet the Under.
Ravens 26
Steelers 20
NFL PLAYOFF ODDS: WILD-CARD POINT SPREADS
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5) 47.5. [U] LW
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans (+2.5) 44.5. [O[
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-10) 46.5 [U] US & O/U
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 50.5. [U]
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4). 46.5. [O] GW
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5). 47.5 [O]
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