NFL 2024 - TNF - WEEK TEN

Thursday, November 7th

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens  (-6.5)  53    [O]

When: Thursday, November 7th at 8:15 pm ET

Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland

Channel: Prime Video

Moneyline: Ravens -108, Jets -112

Spread: Ravens -6.5 (-108)...Bengals +6.5 (-112)

Total = 53

Thought you might like an inside look at The Gairzo’s thought process when he approaches a matchup.  

Most often I start with a “gut” feeling as to how the teams have been doing.  In this one, we know the Ravens have two-time MVP QB, Lamar Jackson, he’s literally a safe bet to earn his third this year.

In his last five games, L.J.’s lowest QB rating is 101.8--a five-point loss to Cleveland.  Lowest rating in the four wins? 114.7; he also had two over 158.  In short, the only guy Jackson has to fight to the top of a very steep mountain is Patrick Mahomes.  

Some idiot pundit--ahem--predicted Jackson would never last taking NFL hits at a slight 200 pounds and really wasn’t that good of a passer.  

Okay fine:  I apologize...

The only thing Jackson doesn’t have--besides 2024's best, most efficient offense--is a Super Bowl ring.  As good as he is, the Magpie’s 2024 defense doesn’t stack up to past incarnations.  They’ve fallen to 30th in third down defense and no better than 21st in every important defensive stat.

The Cincy offense is only a couple ticks short of Baltimore’s excellence, but their defense is just as pedestrian.  The Stripes have played in seven one score games, winning just two. 

They’ve won three of their last four against some low level competition, but Joe Burrow seems to be coming on.

Conclusion:  A decisive Ravens win? The Over for sure...

This is the point where your research begins:

• AFC North game between bitter rivals, usually hard fought and close...

• Lamar has a balky knee...

• Jamarr Chase is healthy...

• Weather not an issue..

•  The Ravens are 8-0 at home on Thursday night under Head Coach John Harbaugh. 

•  21-3 under Harbaugh in primetime home games. 

Conclusion: A decisive Ravens win?...The Over for sure..

At this point you look for trends from guys who get big money to handicap games. My go to site is VSIN.com.  Steve Makinen--the best in the business, although he stinks so far this year-- gives us these juicy nuggets:

First off, this is a dog-dominated series typically, with underdogs 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the series at Baltimore. Head coach John Harbuagh’s team has struggled in the role of divisional home favorite as well, going 24-13 SU but 12-24 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010. More on that aspect, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is 23-11 SU & 12-21 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018.

This is a less than opportune spot to lay points in that this Ravens’ defense has not lived up to the standard set by their predecessors as well, as they are allowing 22.7 PPG and are dead even in holding opponents to their season-effective averages. If that happens here, Cincy is due for about 26 points, a very good projection for a 6-point road dog. Plus, Cincinnati’s head coach Zac Taylor is on a 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%, and QB Joe Burrow is on a 15-2 ATS run as an underdog of +3 to 7 points.

If all that doesn’t convince you yet, consider that on TNF recently, road teams have been on a roll lately, 41-29-2 ATS (58.6%) in the last 72, and divisional hosts are just 13-21 ATS in the last 34. Oh, and one other thing…remember I did say this was a massive trend game; this is a rematch from 10/6, and Cincinnati: 14-13 SU and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 rematch opportunities, while Baltimore is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 rematch home games.

Conclusion?  Take Cincy and the points...The Over is a sure thing...

I’m smoking Steve Mak this year, and I lean on Gil Brandts method:  Usually, the team with the better QB, HC, defense, record, and historical performance should win fairly easily.  Lamar is on the cusp of his third MVP Award--Joe Burrow look like comedian Jim Breuer.  John Harbaugh--who can run Derek Henry down Cincy’s throat is a great coach who loves the Night Lights...

I’ll be the contrarian to my guru: lay the 6.5 points, take the Ravens and play the Over...

Ravens 36

Bengals 26