2024 WEEK SEVENTEEN = 6 - 10 2024 OVERALL. = 141 - 109 -5 .564
WEEKLY O/U = 4 - 6 O/U CUMULATIVE = 73 - 46 .613
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 2 CUMULATIVE = 54 - 29 - 3 .650
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 9 LOCK OF THE WEEK 12 – 4 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 9– 7 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 12 - 5
STEELERS 13 - 3 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 12 7 - 75 - 3 .629
NFL 2024 - WEEK EIGHTEEN
GAME OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3) 52.5. GW [O]
This is the game of the year. I want to pick the home team, but the Jungle Kings are hurting on defense, and their secondary is depleted.
Minnesota might be the most underrated 14-2 team of all time--playing against a team with the best coach the Lions have had in over 50 years...
...And a coach who will become legendary, if Ring-starved Detroit fans finally crash the gates into the promised land...
This is a pick-em game and no in-depth analysis will change that.
I’m going with Minnesota with the Chalk; Sam Darnold gives guys like Justin Fields hope, and he’s a great story. His receivers will make the difference in this one.
A Detroit blowout is a distinct possibility--these guys remind me of the 1974 Steelers, or Shula’s undefeated Dolphins--Destiny awaits.
I’m waiting for one of Dan Campbell’s gambles to backfire. I hope it doesn’t happen; the guy gets me pumped to get on the field.
Stop laughing! I guarantee I could run a 4.4--maybe even under 4 minutes!
Take the Norsemen Cover-- Over the Total.
Lions 31
Vikings 30
UPSET SPECIAL/ STEELERS GAME
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) 48.5 [O]
Since 2007 Mike Tomlin’s Steelers lead the NFL as
With TNF Rest Advantage...After a Bye...As an Underdog...
And as a Home Dog...
18-12 SU..
20-7-3 ATS.
If the Tomlin’s Steelers and Russell Wilson can’t exploit the 26th ranked Cincy defense, (YPG), and 29th in points surrendered--Joe Burrow’s MVP worthy season notwithstanding--who could argue this should be Tomlin’s next to last game as Pittsburgh’s head coach?
Don’t get me wrong, I flat love the Tomlinator. And for the record, I’ll debunk some of the myths his vociferous haters refuse to let go of:
“He doesn’t beat the teams he should beat...”
I hear too many fans, or worse, read too many PG writers, that mindlessly parrot the unsubstantiated myth that Tomlin’s Steelers “take teams lightly” or “play down to the competition” or “don’t beat the teams they should beat”...
Behind the Steel Curtain first debunked the myth of the Steelers losing to teams "they should beat."--(and we proved statistically in a previous post that Tomlin much more often wins games against teams that should have beat his Steelers.).
BTSC’s analysis concludes at the 10th game of 2014.
Using their identical criteria, I extrapolated their methodology which includes Pittsburgh’s record against teams the Steelers played who finished the year at or below .500 and .250...
Here are the facts:
From 2007 to 2016 Tomlin' record & winning percentage against teams...
Under .500 & .250 = 82 - 27 .752
Under .500 = 55 - 21 .724
Under .250 = 27 - 6 .818
***The above data reflects research from BTSC through Week Ten 2014 that yours truly updated from Week 11 2014 thru the 2016 season..***
***The following data, I rushed through last night, for this column.***
Since 2017 thru 2024 Tomlin's record & winning percentage against teams...
Under .500 & .250 = 46 - 16 .742
Under .500 = 38 - 10 .792
Under .250 = 8 - 6 .571
OVERALL RECORD VERSUS TEAMS...
Under .500 & .250 = 128 - 43 = .749
Under .500 = 93 - 31 .750
Under .250 = 35 - 12 .745
While its true the 8 - 6 past seven-year record against teams that finished the season at or below .250 pales in comparison to Tomlin’s first ten-year record against such teams; it’s also true the team has gone through QB purgatory--and it may not be over--a rebuild of the entire defense and O-Line--almost simultaneously.
But these are travails every team goes through. Tomlin who hovers around .500 through such times, at least keeps his teams on the postseason brink, although more than a few didn’t deserve to be there.
He does that with excellent coaching. He does that by leading the league against division foes. He does that by having the best second best winning percentage after Green Bay--I don’t recognize Cheaters.
BUT, the Jets, Arizona, Jacksonville--and about 14 other teams have a better playoff winning percentage!
Ouch!!!
Other coaches, other organizations willfully or subconsciously “tank” for a year or two, finish 4-13, fire coaches and/or GMs, and hope they get a shot a the next Lamar Jackson.
Tomlin's excellence prevents Pittsburgh from ever being a bottom feeder. The Rooney's own the most successful franchise since the merger--most wins and lowest PPG surrendered, 4th in postseason wins, (two behind the Niners)--I think they know what they are doing.
Pick your poison...
OTHER TOMLIN MYTHS
“He got out-coached...”
Total bullshit!
To clarify, if a coach loses a game, technically, it means he "got out-coached." But, that myopic perspective disregards, injuries to key players, weather; bad officiating, opponent quality, talent on the field, quality of opposing coaches/teams/players, and, oh yeah, a tiny little thing called, player execution!
When it comes to 2nd half points surrendered, the primary indicator of coaching prowess and in-game adjustments, the Steelers rank 6th of the top 15 teams in the league.
Out of those 15 teams only two--Chicago and Arizona--have been eliminated from playoff competition.
Let’s take it back five years, shall we?
2024 = 6th...
2023 = 4th...
2022 = 8th...
2021 = 24th...
2020 =5th...
2019 = 4th...
Like I said, total bullshit.
“He has no coaching tree...”
I already debunked this ridiculous complaint in a previous post.
Check out the records of Lombardi’s or The Cheaters "branches." Some coaches like to hire experienced coordinators to whom they delegate authority. Some coaches prefer young ambitious guys whose drive fuels their excellence--and their dreams of being a head coach
Their have been successes and failures in both worlds. It’s not a valid criticism--and has nothing to do with how successful the “Tree” is...
“He’s coach cliche...”
I’ve worked with words all my life. If you don’t appreciate the eloquence of the man, the breadth of his vocabulary, and the totally unique way--coaching bullshit duly noted--Mike Tomlin expresses himself, you are petty and green with envy...
"He doesn't win challenges..."
Really? In case you are blind or clueless, the NFL has a referee problem. Tomlin's .430 ranks 24th but that stat is skewed. As the longest tenured NFL coach, Tomlin has more red flags on record--and therefore more misses--than many coaches with a better record. Go here for the full list:
If you are fair-minded, you will note Reid, Payton, McCarthy, and a few more experienced coaches have a higher rates of success, but guys like John Harbaugh and The Cheater rank lower.
I agree there should be a designated employee to communicate to the sideline when and what to challenge, but seriously, the 53 timeouts lost in the 291 games the guy has coached in had precious little bearing on the outcome of any game.
I challenge any fan to refute that statement.
I'll wait...
"He can't manage the clock!"
Some coaches like to expend timeout before the two-minute warning; some like Tomlin like to keep at least one in the chamber to extend play...
Even so, Tomlin has made several egregious mistakes in the time management aspect of coaching. Criticism on that point is valid. But if, you bust him on 5-10 instances when his miscue might have altered the a games outcome, don't you have to credit him for the countless games when he made no errors?
Just asking for perspective's sake...
Go here for a look at the history: https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=tomlin%27s%20time%20management%20errors
Again, why his assistants or staff don't designate someone to bust in Tomlin's ear, "Coach call time out here!..." Who knows, maybe they do and Tomlin won't listen. No doubt, Tomlin is as stubborn as he is a great leader and coach--and he's earned criticism for that flaw.
“Scared, like a deer in the head lights”... “He’s Dumb...” “He’s lazy...”
We all know the meaning of those unfounded myths, don’t we?
Like I said, if Pittsburgh can’t beat a defensively impotent Bengals squad to assure a trip Houston to face the wobbly Texans, or a home game--should Baltimore lose to Cleveland--versus the Bolts, a team they’ve already beaten, nobody can blame Art Deuce if he requests Mike Tomlin’s resignation.
Not me. His player’s revere him; listen how they talk about him. Listen to how incoming free agents espouse the “night and day” difference Pittsburgh is to their old team.
Then again--you need to make a playoff run Coach--you are not meeting the standard.
Maybe the Steelers and Tomlin need some fresh surroundings to reassess their priorities.
THE GAME
Should be a tough divisional game...
Steelers win outright....Play The Over...
Steelers 27
Steelers 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+.5). 41 LW [U]
The Jets are a mess and A-A-Ron Rodgers is the steamiest part of it.
The Dolphins are playing for their playoff lives...
Tyler Huntley showed a lot of character in relief of Tua last week...
Dolphins by double digits, Under the Total...
Dolphins 31
Jets 10
O/U OF THE WEEK
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5). 45 O/U
Two injury riddled, bad offensive football teams with equally incompetent defenses.
If you like lots of field goals, this is your kind of game.
Colts 19
Jaguars 16
NFL WEEK 18 ODDS: POINT SPREADS & TOTALS
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-17.5) 42. [U]
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) 48.5 US [U]
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) 47.5
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) 45
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-10) 40.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5). 45 O/U
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+2.5) 405.5
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) 38.5
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5). 43.5
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5) 36.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (-10.5) 39
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) 40.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) 41
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets (+.5). 41 LW [U]
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-3) 52.5. GW [O]
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