NFL 2024 WEEK FIVE = 9 - 4 - 1 2024 OVERALL. = 43 - 30 - 5
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 19 - 14
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 -2 - 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE = 15 - 6 - 3
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 2 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 1 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 1 -1 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 - 2
STEELERS 3 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 34 -20 - 3
NFL WEEK THREE
GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys 52 GW [O]
In their last 50 home contests, since 2018, the Cowboys are scoring 31.4 PPG while allowing 23.1.
Conversely, during the same time frame, Detroit, at 9-5, is the league’s second best team, as a Road Favorite.
Should be the game of the year.
Last week, this Pittsburgh fan watched in horror, as what was supposed to be an elite Steelers defense allowed Dak Prescott and the ’Boys to execute long touchdown drives, two, in the fourth quarter. Dallas is just the kind of pampered, under-achieving, yet supremely talented team that can use such an effort to define their season.
(Yes, he really does hate them Cowboys.)
It says here, Dallas will do exactly that--win another big game--even without stud LB, Micah Parsons, still out with an ankle.
These two squads are as evenly matched as it gets. We’ll go with the Home Dog Cowboys to make a statement to the entire NFC--Over the Total.
Cowboys 29
Lions 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK - THE STEELERS
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 36.5. LW [O]
I’m probably going to curse the Steelers and Mike Tomlin by predicting an easy dispatch of a Raiders team that benched Garder Minschew in favor of Aidan O’Connell.
I strive to avoid including Pittsburgh in my top four Specials, but the NFL schedule has been spotty all year. I also try to avoid calling a Lock on any Home Dog--but The Gairzo does not live in his fears.
Pittsburgh, under Tomlin, is second best at avoiding two losses in a row and Alex Highsmith should return to improve the pass rush on a top eight defense.
Meanwhile, the Raiders starting RB Zamir White, all-world sacker, Maxx Crosby, and WR, Jakobi Meyers didn’t practice most of the week.
If the Steelers don’t handily win this one, my stalwart defense of Mike Tomlin’s record may have to...evolve(?)...
We’re calling the Over...
Steelers 26
Raiders 13
UPSET SPECIAL
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Chicago Bears 44.5 US [U]
This wasn’t my first choice for the Upset Special. At first, I liked the Colts over the Titans, but Indy couldn’t beat the spread on the road last week versus the Jags and the Titans are coming off their bye--and have an elite defense.
Let’s move on...
This contest comes to us from London, the Jagwires second home. The Spotted Cats will face a Bears group traveling across numerous time zones with a rookie QB in Caleb Wilson, still trying to find his footing on the NFL landscape.
The Jags stink on defense, and there is a shot Williams can exploit that weakness--but unlike any other sport, football is a game where players perform better when they’re comfortable.
Da Bears are the NFL’s worst road/neutral site team in the last five years.
This will be a long strange trip for Chicago; to Jacksonville, it's more of a home game than the ones they play in Florida.
Last weekend, Trevor Lawrence completed 82.4 percent of his passes for 371 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. For the first time in five games the O-Line didn’t let him down, his receivers--especially rookie, Brian Thomas--caught the ball and some guy named Bigsby ran like a Tank:
We’ll take Jax and the 1.5, Over the Number.
Jaguars 24
Bears 22
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Carolina Panthers 47 O/U
Looks like this is your humble handicapper’s contrarian pick of the year.
There is not one pundit I read or heard who agrees with yours truly that Atlanta will dominate the seriously banged up and less talented Panthers--or that the Under was the correct lean when it comes to the Total.
My thinking is Carolina is a bad football team in all phases
In no way is this an indictment of new head coach Dave Canales. His best talent is injured. Bryce Young, his 5’ 10” 200 pound, rookie QB has been benched, and back-up Andy Dalton is many things, but, unless he sprouts a crown of thorns, savior isn’t one of them.
Even with a barely above average defense under their new head honcho, Raheem Morris, the Falcons and Kirk Cousins seem to have found their balance. Coming off a bye, the Birds of Prey should handle the Panthers reeling from bad draft management, (Young), endless injuries, and sketchy ownership.
Remember, this is a heated division rivalry. These teams know each other’s tendencies and that’s why this and many division matchups often end as lower scoring games.
We’re bucking the “experts” and the public and going with the Under. The Falcons win going away...
Falcons 30
Panthers 10
As usual, all my Specials, ATS, and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 6 POINT SPREADS & TOTALS
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 47.5. [O]
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) vs. Chicago Bears 44.5 US [U]
Washington Commanders (+6.5) @ Baltimore Ravens 51.5
Arizona Cardinals (+5) @ Green Bay Packers. 47.5
Houston Texans (-7) @ New England Patriots 38
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints 41.5
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 43
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans 43.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Denver Broncos 35.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders 36.5. LW [O]
Atlanta Falcons (-6) @ Carolina Panthers 47 O/U
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Dallas Cowboys 52 GW [O]
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ New York Giants 48 [U]
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ New York Jets 41 [[U]
The Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, and Miami Dolphins have byes.
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