Thursday, October 3rd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons. (-2.5) 43.5 US. [O]
The Bucs have been a bettors joy in the first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season, and while their loss to Denver in Week 3 was a surprise to the Gairzo--the Broncos aren’t as bad as a lot of the public thinks.
I’m thinking the Bucs are legit. The Falcons? Can’t bring myself to confidently back Kirk Cousins--though we acknowledged his impressive career stat profile last week.
This week, the Mateys crush Atlanta in RZ Scoring Percentage and Points Per Play--which means the Bucs are more efficient, and, more efficient when it counts. Tampa also outscores the Birds of Prey by almost a full touchdown.
It’s a wash in the ground game; both teams will be looking to improve there, but when it comes to passing, Baker Mayfield smokes Cousins. The former Brown--I’m so glad they gave up on a legit franchise QB--has led the Mateys to wins over playoff contenders, Philly, Washington and Detroit by a total of 38 points. The Falcons beat the Eagles and Saints by a total of three points.
Mayfield’s 106.9 QBR is 23+ points better than Cousin’s 83.5
We like Todd Bowles more than Rahheem Morris--and Atlanta fields the NFL’s worst pass rush.
We’ll take the Matey’s to burn Atlanta more severely than Sherman--we’ll go against the public and call the Over.
Buccaneers 24
Falcons 20
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