Thursday, October 10TH
San Francisco Forty Niners @ Seattle (-6.5), 47.5
Moneyline: 49ers -185, Seahawks +154
Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-108), Seahawks +3.5 (-112)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112), Under 47.5 (-108)
Although Seattle is a tough ATS out as a Home Dog in the last 20 years--25-12-1--good enough for second best in the league; The Gulls barely crack the top ten when we shrink the sample down to only the previous five years, (6-4).
Another twist in this tilt is how poorly Shanahan does against a Mike McDonald defense. But, does that matter? I just think San Fran has too many offensive weapons for McDonald to"outscheme" Shanny.
Here are some nuggets courtesy of Steve Makinen over at VSIN.com--he’s the best in the business and VSIN is a premium site:
Favorites are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the San Francisco-Seattle series in Seattle.
Rookie head coaches like Mike Macdonald have been far less proficient at covering point spreads at home over the last decade, 153-174-9 ATS (46.8%).
On TNF, in the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 23-20 SU but 14-27-2 ATS (34.1%). (There seems to be a more fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.)
Home underdogs on TNF have struggled of late, going 4-18 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) in their last 22, scoring just 14.5 PPG.
This is another division battle against fierce rivals, but there’s just no way the ‘Hawks are going to compete with an underachieving and maybe desperate 49er squad with an offensive line the G-Men dominated last week--they sacked Geno Smith over five times and pressured him the entire game.
Here are some trends from Oddssharks.com:
The 49ers are 8-4 (66.7%) in their last 12 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defenses according to Outlier
San Francisco is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7
We’re going with the Gold Miners and the 3.5 Points. There will be enough weapons on the field to eclipse the Total fairly easily--that means the Over is our confident call.
49ers. 30
Seahawks 21
댓글